Is the Earth in a natural warming period?

The short answer is no, we are in what should be a cooling phase.

Explanation

In the last 800,000 years the Earth’s climate has oscillated between two limits, glaciers advancing and retreating, with about 100,000 years between ice ages. This 100,000 year cycling has been quite clear in ice core data for the last 4 cycles .  The Earth’s climate is seen cycling in the data back 800,000 years.  To put this in perspective, the first Homo Sapiens (us) evolved in Africa about 200,000 years ago.   Thus the Earth’s climate has oscillated in a predictable manner for the entire time that Homo Sapiens have been on the surface!

This 100,000 year oscillation has to do with the shape of the Earth’s orbit.  The gravitational interaction between the Earth and the other planets (mostly Jupiter) cause the Earth’s orbital shape to slightly change.   Changes in the Earth’s orbit’s eccentricity (the departure of the orbit from a perfect circle) slightly change the total solar insulation received by the Earth over the course of a year.  More total insulation, a hotter Earth.  Less total insulation, a colder Earth.  The changes in the Earth’s orbit’s eccentricity occur in roughly 100,000 year cycles.   Both the orbit and the changes in solar insulation can easily be computed  with modern computers.

Today the Earth should be just past the warmest period and cooling, in fact the record from about 6,000 years ago until the 1700’s showed that cooling.  So no, we are NOT in a naturally warming period, we are just past this peak period (if 10,000 years is “just past”) and are in what should be a cooling period.

If this cycling occurred without human influence temperatures would be falling slightly and CO2 levels would also be falling. Measured CO2 levels have RISEN dramatically (they should be in the ball park of 280-300 ppm and is now at 400 ppm well beyond the upper limit of CO2 during the naturally occurring oscillations). Global time and space averaged temperatures are also above where they should be at this point in the oscillation. This gradual slow reduction in CO2 and temperature (if human activity did not intervene) would have taken place over the next 70,000 to 80,000 years.

The data clearly shows that the Earth’s temperature (averaged globally and over time) is headed up, when it should be headed down.  Similarly the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere is headed up (dramatically) when it should be headed down (slowly).  That this is human induced is now extremely well documented.   From a scientific point of view the data is overwhelming…

The simple answer to the question is NO!

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